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I think they will succeed because the majority of Iraqis want to vote and if you are willing to vote in the face of death then your vote is going to be a meaningful one. I am sure the Iraqis who vote will have given much thought about what their vote means and who for whom they will vote.
The elections will not fail because of voter ignorance. Unfortunately everytime the US has an election, uninformed voters vote. This is not an unusual or unprecedented phenomena. Here in Florida, we have to vote almost every election to repeal an admendment that was voted to approve the last election (high speed trains anyone?).
Now I agree with you that the candidate list is daunting, and this could be a legitimacy issue if the ballots are not correctly formatted (Again, my great state of Florida, need I say anymore?) and that is the key to this election. The legitimacy. If the Iraqis are convinced that the election was legitimate or even legitimate enough then the election will have been a success. Having said all that, I am realistic enough to know that this vote will not automatically solve all this country's problems or infighting. But it is a new beginning...
I have a couple of problems with your rhetoric.
What makes you think this? Have you talked to Iraqis, or just FoxNews? Objectively, if I were an Iraqi and my major news sources were Al Jazeera and other Arab news sources, and violence is all around me to the point I might get killed if I go to the supermarket, I may not want to upset the apple cart, know what I'm saying? I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, just asking you to take more than the Administration's word for it.
Apples and oranges, my dear. The United States has an already established democracy with already established political parties that have already established political trends. Asking a military person overseas to choose between 2 candiadtes, Republican or Democrat, on federal, state and local levels is not the same as asking an Iraqi to vote for a political party or coalition they have no idea about, voting for a prime minister when the only known name is Allawi, etc. Granted you make a point about amendements, etc, but you the voter can become educated. It is impossible with so many parties and candidates on such a short timeline with all the violence all around.
Also I remind you that no country has a perfect form of government and that they all had to begin somewhere. And none of those beginnings were perfectly conceived and executed from the first election. It evolved. This is the Iraqi's beginning.
I think the downside to this form of government is that for some countries things never get done because all of the groups don't agree. Will we see that in Iraq? Maybe, but I think the first step to effective government is at least giving the people a voice.